First, the really good news. Although we have been perched out on this limb for months, we still believe, overall, sales between Thanksgiving and December 31 this year will recoup about 50% of last year's decline. In other words, if you were down 8% during that period last year, we expect you will be up about 4% this year. But of course, you will have to aggressively go get it!
Now the not-so-good news. We're projecting that the first three to six months of 2010, overall retail sales will be flat. Don't look for gains after this month. Not only is the economy expected to be a drag, but deflation looms. You probably will sell as many or even more units in early 2010 as last year, but we believe volume will be flat.
Ahh, but back to the really good news. Since your operating expenses and inventories are now down (they've had to be), we believe there can be improved margins even with flat sales in early 2010. You will have to be a real merchant to capture these margins, but they are available.
Remember, anybody selling merchandise is a retailer. It's the merchants who lead the way! And for the merchants, "flat is the new up"!
1 comment:
I thought this blog article matched up well with your thoughts about where Retail is headed in 2010. It seems that this may be the year for the strong to plan ahead and take advantage. http://commercialconstructionblog.com
This blog has several great posts about the state of retail construction and is written by Englewoed Construction from Chicago who build the new Michigan Ave store for ZARA.
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