Finally! The 4th Quarter is HERE

October 1 marks the beginning of the 4th quarter of the calendar year. The beginning of the home stretch. And yes, there is good reason for retailers to cheer. Consider:

Halloween will be HUGE 

According to the National Retail Federation, Halloween spending is expected to reach a record high of $8.4 Billion on costumes, decorations and candy.

• More than two-thirds of Americans plan to buy costumes this year. For themselves, their kids, or their pets!  
• This year’s most coveted costume? As reported by the Washington Post, “So far, it’s superheroes across the board: For kids, for adults, for pets,” said Lorenzo Caltagirone, owner of Total Fright, a year-round costume shop in Arlington, VA.
• After 11 years of being the most popular choice, princess costumes have been dethroned. “The female superhero in particular has really taken off. This is the year of girl power.”
• Political costumes rank third on the list of popular options for adults 35 and older, bested only by more traditional witch and pirate get-ups.
• About those costumes for pets? Pumpkins, hot dogs, and bumblebees. 

The Election will be OVER!

And so will the election angst.

• According to CNBC News, “If history is any indication, retailers could see a double-digit sales lift in November and December, as shoppers focus on the holidays and release pent-up demand.”
• This post-election sales spike is likely to occur no matter which candidate wins.
• According to analysis by Alix Partners, “in the 2004 and 2012 presidential election years, year-over-year sales growth slowed an average of 22 percent in September and October, as compared with the prior eight months. It then bounced back an average 16 percent in November and December.” 

Despite the Hanjin Shipping bankruptcy, merchandise WILL be in stores for holiday

• According to the National Retail Federation, “import cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports should be at near-peak levels for September.” While much merchandise is still in limbo, “retailers are working hard to make sure it ends up on store shelves in time for the holidays.”

What Black Friday surprises this year? How About The NEW Normal?

• Remember last Thanksgiving? Some retailers stepped back from opening on Thanksgiving Day. REI made news by closing its stores on Thursday and Friday.
• How does all that affect customer expectations for this year?
• And what approach are you planning for your stores for this year? 

Not easy questions. But a sure sign that retailers may indeed be able to get back to The NEW Normal.

Ahh Yes, Christmas

This year, Christmas Day falls on a Sunday.

• That means offices that typically shut down starting at mid-day on Christmas Eve may instead be doing that on Friday the 23rd, inviting a late shoppers bonanza.
• Of course, the After-Christmas events will then start on a Monday. How convenient!

Wow, what gifts! 


Especially in retail, timing IS everything. Enjoy the arrival of this year's 4th quarter.