The 8 weeks between July 15 and September 15 mark the annual Back-to-School season.
While "Back-to-School" merchandise is not the dominant category for most retailers, many retailers take advantage of the opportunity to bring shoppers into their stores.
More so than most years, we see this B-T-S season as a key indicator of how Fall/Holiday 2013 might turn out for retailers.
This may surprise you: we anticipate 6%-8% sales increases during this year's Back-to-School season.
The economy continues to improve, and consumer confidence keeps rising.
But what really drives our hypothesis for such a strong B-T-S season is this: there will be far greater interest in discretionary fashion apparel than in recent years.
Here's why.
- The Recession discouraged much of the discretionary spending; the focus had to be on basics. Now, fashion can re-emerge.
- The competition represented by the "gee whiz" electronics for kids has subsided, as those devices have been acquired. They already are in every kid's backpack.
And that bodes especially well for B-T-S retailers. Plus, since they by and large have their inventories under control, margins should stay quite strong. Might that be great news for Fall/Holiday?
Whether or not you're in the Back-to-School business, we urge you to "go to school" on this year's results. It may be a delight!
