"How high is up?" Moreover, "How LONG is up?"

In the world of retailing, every December is fascinating, challenging, and  - especially when the results are positive! - even thrilling. And this December is no exception.

For whatever reasons, the all-important consumer confidence index continues to rise.  And retail sales are far stronger than expected just months ago. In fact, November was the 6th consecutive monthly increase in retail sales!  It now appears as though they will maintain this robust nature through the end of this month.  

Retailers are basking in this "It's all good!" moment. And, with sales being up more than expected and inventories held in check, margins are likely to be higher. All in all, one of the best Holiday Seasons in years. 

So, we ask, "How high is up?"

Our estimate today is "Not very high."  But more to the point, "How long is up?"  That is, can this level of growth be sustained? 

We think not. We anticipate that the first two quarters of 2012 will look a lot like the first two quarters of 2011, bleak for retailers. Retailers should relish this fine Holiday Season, but must go into Q1 and Q2 of 2012 with discipline and restraint.

• It has been noted that consumers, who on the whole have had more debt than assets for awhile, got religion from recession-fear. For the last 2 years, they have steadily reduced their family debt burden. 
• Then, this Fall, while incomes have been stagnant, consumers started to put more spending on credit than they paid off. And apparently they are continuing that trend through the Holiday Season. My, what short memories we have!
• The unresolved European debt crisis is looking very, shall we say, "European". It lacks a needed sense of urgency. 
• For every job opening in this country now, there are, on average, 4.25 applicants. In healthy times, it's closer to a 2:1 ratio. 
• Moreover, those folks in Disneyland-on-the-Potomac seem frozen in a "Wait for the election!" mentality.

All in all, very disappointing. Especially for retailers as we start a new year. We expect the optimistic consumer confidence to be ephemeral. 

Enjoy it while you can, but don't get too used to it.

What Do These Upbeat Retail Sales Results Really Mean?

Retail sales results for February have come out, and two major tracking services - Retail Forward and the International Council of Shopping Centers - report that comp store retail sales rose at least 3.7% in February: "their best monthly gains since the economy began its meltdown in November 2007." (In fact, we believe that is the sixth straight month of sales increases!)

Then, ShopperTrak reported that while sales were up in February vs LY (just 1.2% on their numbers), shopper foot traffic was down 3.1%. So, either average transactions were higher, or retailers were better at converting shoppers to customers. (Our bet is on the latter: motivated retailer meets purpose-driven shopper!)

What do reports such as these mean to independent retailers? Especially since they are reporting results of major national chains.

Well, we believe they do matter in several ways. First, they provide yet another benchmark against which to measure your own stores' performance. How were your February sales? You now have some context for assessing your own progress. (And maybe feel a bit better about what you did accomplish!)

Second, it provides insights into how consumers are feeling. Maybe "Frugal Fatigue" is in fact becoming more prevalent. For the 90% of the population that still have their job, they may be gaining some confidence that it is okay to spend.

No question, the spending that does occur will be much more purposeful and restrained than 2007. There is no going back to that! But those retailers who have edited their assortments to better match what their very best customers want will be well positioned going forward.

Even better prepared are those retailers who have been analyzing more than top line sales numbers. When sales are down, why? Fewer transactions? Smaller average transactions? Fewer items per transaction? These insights can be powerful for planning your store's progress in this New Normal.

Third - and perhaps most important about benchmarks - the financial community is reading these reports as well. Bankers and the credit departments of your vendors should be encouraged by these positive signs. In your discussions with them, be sure to have armed yourself with the most recent perspective on consumer confidence.

Remember, unemployment is a lagging indicator of the economy; consumer confidence is the leading indicator, particularly for retailers.

Market Upswing in July Means Strong Holiday Sales for Retailers

"He who lives by a crystal ball must thrive on ground glass for lunch."

Ahh yes, a good caution. But some of us believe that the best indicator of the economic future is the six-month predictor of the stock market.

And July 2009 was the strongest July in decades for the stock market. You saw that?!

So, to us, that fact should bolster the optimism of retailers for this holiday season. It's the cause-effect, cause-effect cycle: the stronger stock market leads to improved consumer confidence; consumer confidence drives consumer spending, which should jump up smartly in December-January (six months after the strongest July in decades.)

That's our view. What's yours? (And, shall we save a date in December for lunch?)